Re: Flop overbet
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If Villain is a loose raiser, then you should have re-raised him PF since you quite likely have the best hand and have position on him.
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You sound like an announcer for Live-At-The-Bike. Those are reasons not to reraise him.
Yes, TT is slightly ahead of his range. However, if I reraise, he will tend to fold the hands worse than TT, and call or push with better hands. (He pushed all-in with TT before.) If he pushes, I might or might not be pot-committed against him (because he is a maniac), but I'm not ahead of his range anymore and I will really regret raising. If he pushes, I no longer have a positional advantage.
Calling is a way to use my positional advantage and the fact that I am ahead of his raising range, but probably not ahead of his pushing range.
One problem with calling is that it lets the blinds enter with hands I'd rather knock out, but the flip side is that I'd hate to reraise and then get a call or reraise from the blinds.
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if folding is a mistake, then it's probably only a small mistake;
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I strongly disagree. If he has AK, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3:1 favorite in a huge pot. If he has A7, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3.5:1 favorite in a huge pot. If he has T9, folding is a huge mistake. If he has 99, folding is a huge mistake. Only if I am up against a big draw such as a pair plus an OESD (87 or 88) or an OESD plus an overcard (A8) would our hands be about even, which would make folding a relatively small mistake.
While I'm toast against a set, straight, or overpair, I'm only a 2.5:1 underdog against two pair.
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Overbetting the pot to this degree is such a horrific FToP error that you will inevitably get Villain's money if he keeps doing this.
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First, I won't inevitably get his chips. Someone will get his chips, but not necessarily me. There are 4 other people at the table. My expected share of any chips I pass up here is quite small. (I had to quit shortly after this hand, too.)
Second, even if I think I'll get opportunities later, I should still make good use of my opportunities now.
Third, why do you think this is a large FToP mistake? Maybe it is precisely what is needed to bluff me off a better hand. Maybe it is an awesome value bet. Maybe he has a big draw and this bet gives him an informational advantage if I call down but never bet myself, so even if I win 52% hot-and-cold, I'll lose a lot of money in this pot.
Fourth, this was the first time I had seen him make an overbet like this. If he had done it before, I would have mentioned it along with the description of the earlier raised pots I had played against him.
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