Re: standard small overpair?
nice post. you're doing a good job convincing me. there are a few other things:
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if you don't continue...what do you do when he pushes this river?
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this would be a big overbet. in my experience this almost never happens with any holding. i'd probably fold if he did it.
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if anything you checking the turn could freeze him on the river (assuming you're doing this for 'value').
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my plan was to put in exactly one bet on the river. if he checks i'll try to squeeze some value out of 9x or 8x.
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the same guy that will bluff into you (with his piece, or MISSED draw) is the same guy that will call your VALUE BET on the turn.
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that's not totally true about the piece. i think there are hands that will call a bet on the river or lead the river but would fold to a turn bet. most of these hands have 5 outs (8x or bottom pair), so i'm happy to give them one shot at a 5 outer if they'll put in a bet on the river they wouldn't on the turn.
there's the minor issue that if i'm behind, checking let's me take a 2-outer rather than bet-folding.
very good post though. i'll post results at some point after somebody else gets in the thread.
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