Yes, i pay for membership on valueforum.com
by bullish i just mean that ive invested more in TLK and MXF then i have in the other stuff.
I think valueforum is really great. its like 2+2 only alot more organized, and more serious. i think you can get a free trail at first.
XTO:
XTO recently presented at an FBR conference. In not so many words, they said to expect natural gas companies to have blow-out earnings in Q4 2005.
They also pointed out that XTO's production costs are one-half of the industry average, and that their decline rate is one-half of industry average. This powerful combination generates tremendous free cash flow.
Management expects production to grow by at least 10% organically next year, while the company generates 1 to 1.5 billion in cash for accretive acquisitions or failing that, share buybacks.
I am very impressed by this disciplined, focused, and enthusiastic team.
Earlier I wrote:
This is a well-managed, growth oriented natural gas play. XTO's management usually low-balls per share production growth figures. While they are predicting 10% growth for next year, they will likely come in at their more typical 15 to 20%.
XTO’s superior finding and development cost performance and low rate of decline lead to a relatively low level of capital necessary to hold production flat (maintenance capital). As a result, the company generates a high level of free cash flow relative to its stock price.
Given the low decline of older vintage wells in XTO’s producing portfolio, the rate of production replacement required by new wells is relatively low. This gives XTO the opportunity to generate competitive organic growth versus its peers, who typically have greater decline rates. XTO's crack geology team manages to double the expected production from their reserves.
Long term debt to capital of 38% is somewhat higher than peers, but manageable.
Strictly land-based production, significant insider ownership, only 1% hedged for 2006, good reserve growth, extensive drilling inventory, exceptionally high NatGas prices, and a forward PE of 11 make XTO an excellent choice for one's portfolio. I've got it in mine!
AFR: insider buying with divy coming up
IF, TLK:
Yesterday, Indonesia's President Bangbang Yudhoyano reshuffled his cabinet and appointed a new economic team:
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/051206/16/3x258.html
Today's market reaction in Jakarta was distinctly positive:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EJKSE&t=5d
I have been watching Indonesia lately, because I think it could be the Brazil of 2006 and maybe 2007. They had a tough year over in Indonesia, starting with the tsunami last Christmas, but the pain this year points to longer term gain in this economy. The tsunami was a catalyst to make peace with the Ache province, so energy production and export from North Sumatra should pick up. The government put through a new pricing policy for consumer energy products. Previous prices were below the cost of refining, which lead to the screwy result that an energy exporting country had to import refined products, it also caused government fiscal problems.
Not everything is fixed, by a long shot, but it appears fixed enough that the market can move again. There are not many choices for US stock buyers. Primarily:
IF : The Indonesian Fund is selling at a small discount to NAV and can really move when it gets going.
tlk : Telekomunikasi Indonesia makes up a full 20% of IF and it is the best of the two Indonesian ADRs available on the NYSE. On a daily graph, the TA is stretched, but it's close to breaking out to new highs on the weekly.
Just curious, desert, how much value do you put into standard and poor and other such reports. they have a chart showing how the correlation between how many stars they rate a stock and how well it does, and they seem to do a damn good job.
i wrote none of this, and i barely understand it. i guess i am gambling sort of by investing here, but these guys are pretty well documents as winners.