Thread: Risk of Ruin
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  #19  
Old 07-27-2005, 11:52 PM
Dan Mezick Dan Mezick is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Foxwoods area
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Default Re: Risk of Ruin

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Now at what RoR does one expect to be a break-even player

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To determine this you need your actual edge, which will inform your session risk value. It's like sizing a bet in trading: your perceived edge informs your "what percentage of equity to risk" decision. The smaller the edge the smaller the bet (position) size.

Keeping RoR small won't make you break even with a small negative edge. But playing with a RoR that's too high will make you go broke, even if you have a huge edge. RoR is a function of edge and bet size. If you have a good method and a decent edge but your bet size (session risk) is too large you can go broke quite easily. That's a crime when you have a real edge.

Small RoR derived from small session risk will keep you alive long enough to possibly figure out your method is bad, so you can make adjustments before the RoR actually hits you.
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