Re: Risk of Ruin
Thanks for your post here.
Session risk is defined as your stop-loss value, say 30BB. I see where you are coming from with all the unknowns you listed. Theoretically if you have enough observations you can calculate RoR based on these plus the defined session risk.
The biggest wild card is the variability of the game and the variability of your own play.
The basic answer from many respondees seems to be "you cannot validly estimate RoR for poker, even in a very simple example such as 30 observations of a weekly NLTH tourney with a min of $40 and a max of $100, using a stop-loss to define the max session risk."
Gee, that makes poker very discretionary. Doesn't it?
It also makes it impossible to accept the risk in a responsible manner, since you do not know what the risk actually is.
Right?
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