[DcifrThs]

i dont think most people on this board, or in general consider folding a clean 8 out draw HU on the flop or the turn. in terms of why that is, its because its a clear +EV play from an effective odds perspective on the flop to the river.

just doing the calculations in my head and assuming its a 1chip2chip blind structure, we're looking at calling 1.5bbs to win a 4.75bb pot if he calls the river when we hit. in that case, we're getting over 3:1 for a 2and change:1 effective draw (looking at the flop + turn and not just the flop and then the turn). if he doesn't call river when we hit, then we're looking at a much smaller gain but still +EV. odds against 8 out on flop to hit river is something like 2.2 or there abouts. if he didnt call river we'd be getting around 2.5:1 effective odds.

but ray, you definately do have a point in that if you look at the turn in isolation, you're getting 4.25:1 on a draw that needs closer to 5:1 to be +EV.

its interesting b/c nobody looks at the turn individually. we all look at the flop and take the effective odds from the flop, which look good. but if you look street by street, then on the turn it does look like a check fold from an EV perspective (assuming Js and Ts are no good, which isn't right 100% of the time).

anyways, making me go through the math of this again shows an interesting point. looking at bets you have to win from an effective odds standpoint, it's a positive expectation to call flop and turn and bet river. but if you look street by street, taking into acct all the bets that went in on the previous street, it doesn't look as good (i.e. no longer do we have a positive expectation on the turn).

its a funny paradox that arises in this case and you're post brings that out.

Barron