Re: Maximizing EV in a School Survey
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I guess I wasn't very clear in my initial explanation; you need to bet at least $1 on every game.
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Oh, OK. I'd still try to concentrate your money as much as possible on the good games.
$1 minimum on each of the 16 Underdogs leaves $24. Therefore you can bump up 6 games from $1 to $5, choose my top 2 and your favorite 4 games from my second 7.
Once the bye weeks come you'll be able to bump a couple of more games up to $5.
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Your point is well taken, though; You should just bet $5 on the 6 most advantageous games and $1 on the remaining 10 games to maximize EV. I spread my games roughly by the edge I'd receive, betting $1 on some, 2.5 on otheres, and 5 on the obvious games.
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It's not going to hurt you much, anytime you pick dogs with 1.5-2 additional points, you're getting a great bet. And lowering your variance is fine, just depends on how important guaranting a win is relative maximizing EV with some risk is to you. But spreading your money around to 10 games instead of 6 isn't going to change your variance that much (especially by the end of your 6 week season), but if you're picking games where the extra points aren't giving you much of an edge, you're giving a fair amount of EV.
This week, I'd have no problem max betting my top 2 choices then spreading the extra money over my other 7. Jags, Dolphins, Browns would probably be OK too. Just don't bet games like Falcons, Cardinals or Titans where you're not getting any key numbers.
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