[schwza]

this post has serious errors in it.

the problem with this argument is that it ignores the fact that villain will call with his good hands and fold the bad ones. the correct way to look at it is to figure when villain folds and you have AK, do you want him to?

assume villain never folds a pair on the flop. with 4k in the pot and a push of 2k, i don't think this is unreasonable. if villain will often fold a pair, then a stop n go might be right, but for now assume villain does not fold a pair.

so times that villain flops a pair or has a pp, sng is identical to push.

when villain does not flop a pair, do we want him to fold? it depends.

if we have a pair and he does not, his fold on the flop is very correct and we lose out big time, as he's drawing nearly dead.

if neither of us has a pair and we dominate him, his fold is correct, as he's drawing to 3 outs getting 3:1. so we don't want him to fold.

if neither has a pair and we don't dominate him, we're pretty indifferent. villain is getting 3:1 and is ~24% to win the pot, so we don't really care if he folds or not. remember we're heads up, so we don't care about variance.

it's possible we'll sometimes fold out a hand like 33, that's most likely to happen when an A or K is on the board - again, a disaster for us. i think any equity we gain from pairs folding when they're way ahead is totally swamped by making non-pair hands fold when we have them completely smoked.

edit: this was a response to chucknorris's AK stop n go post. forgot to mention we have AK though [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] thanks for pointing it out.