Re: AQs -- a standard 3/6 hand?
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sorry if i'm being gay but i was thinking:
seeing as the board is paired (your draw weakened and your pot equity possibly 0), you probably need a decent chance of both players folding for a turn bet to be correct (please shoot me down);
for their to be a "decent" chance of both folding there needs to be a "good" chance of A folding and a "good" chance of B folding (speaking roughly cos you aint got much time at the table);
if
1)tight player's turn check strongly implies he has JJ or QQ and can be pushed off it
2)loose player folds lots on turn
then i reckon bet, so long as (3)you don't fear the check raise too much;
otherwise check
so...am i rubbish?
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A few thoughts:
Although the board did pair on the turn, making it possible I'm drawing dead, I do now also have a four-flush, so my draw quite likely became stronger instead of weaker. I do think a turn semi-bluff is something to consider.
However, even though 3/6 players will lay down a hand, I wasn't very confident about getting BB to dump QQ/JJ. I hadn't really shown that much strength during the hand, and I think 3/6 players do get a bit attached to their premium pairs. I think the chances of getting him to drop 99/88 are pretty good, though.
MP2 was going to call, but I wouldn't mind getting heads-up with him, as he could just have 86o (for a gutshot) or something. Still, he could also have me beat with 22 or 75s. It was pretty hard to put him on any sort of a specific hand.
As for concerns about a checkraise, BB's turn check made me suspicious, and I was worried he was lining up a raise.
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