Re: A 1 bet river fold, 30/60
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The river fold, before you laugh at it, put a vpip 20 player on a range of hands and their relative likelihoods and let's go from there.
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If he would call 2 w/A9s he could also have A8s or A7s. He likely puts you on a big ace the way you played your hand. I would say the minimum he raises on the river is AK. If he's capable of calling 2 w/Axs he would likely play A7-9 like this post flop.
I say most often he turns over AK, 99 or 88. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see TJs, A9s, maybe A8s or AA.
I think because you never really showed the true strength of your hand (unless he doesnt think you'll cap a big Ace on the turn) you should call and expect to be shown AK or A9s often enough for a profit.
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Raise AK? Never showed the strength of my hand? You're living in candy land.
-James
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