Re: Mason\'s Bunching Part II
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The folds tell us that these guys didn't like their hands but I find it hard to believe that the chances of the folded hands having one of the remaining treys is so high as to make flopping a set 10:1. As you point out in part 1 of your bunching series, guys fold KJ off in EP.
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I don't think that it's as high as 10:1 but if you eliminate the range of raising and limping hands, it will no doubt increase the chances that a trey is already out.
But this concept argues against Mason's original article, no? If you eliminate the range of raising and limping hands from the folded hands, and this increases the chance of small cards being folded, then it has to increase the chances that high cards are out.
In most situations it wouldn't matter. But in a bottom range of hands that you would raise with in a short-handed game, you should probably not do so in a full game where many players have folded. What these hands are I don't know. But I think that can actually be figured out for a given type of opponent(s). For example there are 1326 possible hand combinations that can be dealt to each player. And the later in the action the more hands a player will raise with. SO you may be 100% sure that no one has AA, but only 80% sure that no one had KTo, and only 40% sure no one had 54s and so on. You can probably eliminate 30% or so of the hands and come up with a likelyhood of the blinds holding hands that can stand a raise.
I wonder if someone has the initiative to do this, perhaps using the S&M hand rankings as a guide for each position. I don't. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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