Re: Mason\'s Bunching Part II
BTW, I am also having trouble accepting your hypothesis that the odds of flopping a set are at about 10:1 when you have 33 in the bb and there is a button open raise.
The folds tell us that these guys didn't like their hands but I find it hard to believe that the chances of the folded hands having one of the remaining treys is so high as to make flopping a set 10:1. As you point out in part 1 of your bunching series, guys fold KJ off in EP.
Even if it were 10:1, I am still not convinced that folding the 33 to teh button raise is the proper play. After the flop, you should still be ahead a majority of the time. Granted, you may fold on the flop or on the turn even though you have the best hand because of position etc. but there are ways to counteract that...folding preflop seems to be an extreme measure.
Hell, I routinely coldcall two bets from the bb with any pocket pair i.e. button openraises, sb 3 bets, I call with 33. Maybe I take it too far the other way.
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