Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey
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Therefore, I wouldn't bet the turn. If he bets, fold.
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This is not good against this opponent, IMO.
Perhaps I didn't make my read clear enough. He will bet if I check. He donkbets more than anyone I've ever seen. He will bet with nothing, or next to nothing.
Example.
I have AQ or something. Flop QT4. He donks, I raise. Turn: 5. He donks, I raise. River: 4. He donks again. He has K4o.
He has donkbluffed the river with 8 high against me.
When you also consider the fact that he plays 85% of his hands and takes tons of them to showdown unimproved, check/folding QJo on the turn here is not a good plan.
Am I wrong?
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My problem is the board and the pot size. You're beaten a lot here already and your hand is extremely vulnerable. If you are beaten, you're often drawing very thin. In addition, you have to put 2 more BB into the pot. I think there's value in just giving up here. I could be wrong. It might be a little +EV, but even the slightest thing could swing it if it is. For example, if this guy ever checks through worse hands on the river (assuming you don't bet, which would be the case on most rivers) that makes this situation much worse for you.
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