[McMelchior]

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I'd like to win a big MTT tournament [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]. Let's say one at least on the Stars/Party weekly MTT level.

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Are you talking about the $500k/$350k guaranteed Sunday tourneys?

If you are, it's really not that hard. With about 3,000 players signing up every Sunday on Stars your chance of winning any one of these is 1/3,000 times the factor by which you're worse than the host of generally strong players making the top 3 or 4 tables every week. There are certainly some lucky donks in between, but they are there because they get ridiculously lucky, and you're going to have a hard time competing with them.

If you have two years to accomplish your goal you'll be playing approximately 100 of these tournaments. So we're down to something like 1/3,000 * 100 * [suckyness factor] ... let me guess that you'll end up with 2% chance of winning one over the course of two years.

Adding Party as well and you might have 4% chance. This assuming that you dilligently apply yourself, learn to play for hours on end without making mistakes, pick up some good reading skills and plays, and avoid running too badly over longer periods.

EDIT: Do you think I'm too dire in my outlook? Think about how many of the regular poster here on 2+2 that have won. That's not really a lot. And boy, we have tough players posting here - a lot of them.

Maybe you'd do yourself a favor setting a more realistic and attainable goal - like making the last three tables at least once within a year. That way you'll have a decent chance of reaching your goal, and won't become quite as discouraged.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)