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Old 09-21-2005, 11:39 PM
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Default Re: Cold-Call 99 in MP3- weak post flop?

Preflop I think you have a raise there, although its fairly read dependent.

Nice bet on the flop. He calls. So lets try to put him on a hand (from his preflop raise):
AJo+, ATs+, KQ-J, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 88? I think this is fairly appropriate.

With any overpair or ATs he is not checking and calling that flop. 9 times out of 10 he bets for value, the other .9 times he is checkraising you here.
Therefore the chances of an overpair are negligent.

So we can put him on TT, which is two combinations, and is slowplayed. Or we can put him on overcards AJo+, AJs+, KQ-J, which is a LOT more combinations (cbf working it out).

Any 2 OCs are peeling one off that flop for their 6 outs.

The turn card is safe, so bet it out. If he checkraises, call down.

The river basically assures your victory, as now the only feasible hand that beats you based on the preflop and flop assumptions is quads. Bet it for value.

The way this was played is insanely weak. In fact if bet in to on that great flop I would probably raise anyway, and consider a cap.
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