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I'm not sure I agree. One way to beat a bad player is to figure him out and exploit his weaknesses. But another is to take the initiative and force him into bad situations. If you give him a lot of hard choices, you can be pretty sure he'll make enough wrong ones for you to win.

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I agree with RussianBear: This was an excellent post. Beating poor players is as much about being in charge of their choices as it is about the choices you make.