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Old 04-07-2005, 04:32 PM
J.R. J.R. is offline
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Default Re: I catch my overcard... now what?

[ QUOTE ]
Because a LAG will likely continue betting on the river, so....

1) You extract 1 more bet from a bluff
2) Generally, you are less likely to be 3-bet on the river than the turn.
3) You have the option of calling the river if the board turns scary.


[/ QUOTE ]

but the "L" stands for loose, might he pay off a turn raise and a river bet....
might he also not bet the river...
how likely is it he 3-bets the turn with a hand we would be obliged to call with (K4, K8, a worse K, QJ, T8)...
how do we define scary- if he was tight we would suspect it far more liekly an A hit him if he leads, for example, but with a guy playing 70% of his hands, can we narrow down his range of hands enough to allow us even identify a scare card?


IMO the wait to the river line is better applied in spots where:

1) it is less clear we are ahead and wait to make our opponent more disinclined to 3-bet a better hand or

2) we are afraid our opponent will fold a hopeless or longshot hand to our turn raise when he would have bluffed the river unimproved

Here I think we are ahead a great bit, and it appears opponent will bet many worse hands for us on the river if we call..so how often will he pay off a worse hand if we raise (I am assuming he won't make a bad fold to a turn raise)? I think a lot with multiple draws out there

BTW, higher river aggresssion is consistent with river bluffing and river folding, so will a river raise get paid off?
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