[ravensfan]

Maddog i like the analysis...
First things first: im a borderline fish and dont come anywhere near these levels. i play 100nl tables and 22 tourneys. So if im donking it up please be patient [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
But arent there other possibilities too... such as a flush draw with 2 overs ie 3h, 4h, 8o which is pretty much also a coinflip versus an overpair, although i think that hero would be slight favorite with what i would guess to be 13-13.5 outs (since hes more likely to have Qs, Js, or AQ, than Ks if hes equally likely to raise Js as Ks) given villians hand range.. which should give about 55%?
these could definitely have a lot of implied odds, especially if villian is as predictable in betting as in preflop hand selection and is capable of laying down an overpair to a hard c.r... which increases fe
and pushes the +EV higher... this situation will come up what 4% of the time?
im too lazy and tired to do the math on it, but couldnt this boost the EV to positive territory both for this hand and for future BB situations?
also, since youll likely hit the flop 1 in 3 wouldnt u want to keep the pot small and close off the betting to a) stop a reraise which would force a fold to either QQ or KK which you might want to see that free card against b)disguise your hand or c) keep the chips out of pot that are -EV (ie those that were raised: u get 2x ur bet 1 in 3 times and 0x ur bet 2/3)