Re: Clear fold pf?
AJo is total garbage in the situation you present. The problem with calling is that it has really bad negative implied odds. The thing that you have to understand about negative implied odds is that your deficit = frequency x severity.
If you hold AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and the villian has KT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on a T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] board you don't have much in terms of negative implied odds. A king will only come 4.5% of the time and when it does you will lose 2 BB maximum.
When you hold K2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and someone else holds A4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on a board of T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you have really bad negative implied odds. The flush will come in 29% of the time and when it does you will lose your shirt.
The problem with calling here is that you will oftentimes have to pay a boatload of bets (when you flop something) just to see that someone else had AK. Since you will flop a pair about 32.4% of the time, it will get expensive when you commonly end up paying off the entire way and lose. When your one pair is good on the flop you will get very little action since hands like KK and QQ will slow way down on an A98 board.
If you choose to play weak-tight and fold everytime you don't flop a doozy, you will be losing bigtime on the preflop call.
You will get 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s roughly 1.12% of the time.
The flop will be T98/QT9/KQT about .9% of the time (no monotone flops).
You will hit 2 split 2.02% and trips+ 1.45%.
This amounts to a whopping 5.5% of the time. So you need to be getting about 17:1 to call preflop if you play for the monster hand.
Brad
Edit: I would much rather call with 54o here then AJo. When you are totally destroyed in terms of domination/high card value, you have to play for the big hands (straights and flushes). Not that I would call here with 54o getting just 5:1, but it is a much better hand in this spot then AJo.
Stats on 54o:
2 split = 2.02%
Trips+ = 1.45%
76x, 63x, 32x (no monotone, x doesn't fill a straight) = 3.1% each
Straight = 1.3%
Total = 14.1% you will flop a big hand or draw with little to no negative implied odds (i.e. you will not dump a lot of $$$ into a AQ5 board since you are cooked here). 54o will make a straight 9.18% of the time, more then any other hand (same as JTo). Connected cards really go up in value here since they make straights more often then suited cards make flushes (so 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] > 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] > 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]), and both of those can take down something like top set (big payday [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). Plus they are usually harder to see which makes them even better.
|