[humdinger]

Like I said last week (under NYG/NO), I don't pick or post a lot. But every once in a while a game stands out to me. This week, I find the Bears Bengals game intriguing.

In week 1, Vikings ran for 2.2 yds/carry. Then, against the Bengals, the Vikings running game, in all it's splendid disarray, ran for 5.5 yards/carry.

In week 1, the Browns ran for 5.3 yds/carry vs the Bengals. Then, in running up the score at Green Bay, they dropped off to 2.4 yds/carry.

These are two BAD running teams (MIN and CLE) who had PROFOUND success running the ball vs Cincy.

Now, enter Chicago. Thomas Jones has had a LOT of success running the rock this year, and Cedric Benson is getting some carries. Chicago is a defense-first team, obviously, and will work towards that by pounding the ball all day.

Normally, when this is the case, I like the under. However, I'm afraid of the total in this game, because CHI may be TOO successful running the ball, and score quite a bit.

Cincy, on the other hand, is a bit of a public darling. People are in awe of their offense (even though they've only played MN and CLE...weak defenses). People think they can win the AFC North. People think Carson Palmer is the next Peyton Manning.

Granted, it's a little tough to say how good the Bengals O is, and it's a little tough to say how good the Bears D is (both have looked good vs. bad opponents).

If the Bengals O and Bears D are even close to even, then the other side of the ball heavily favors the Bears.

I like the Bears +3. I like the Bears on the moneyline, +135. And I sort of like the under, 38.5.

Agree/disagree?

hd