I was looking at my statistics over my last 100 hours and noticed that twice I had losing streaks between 50 and 70 big bets, yet I was able to average about 1.8 bb/hr over this 100 hour period. This is my first 100 hour block of keeping statistics (I always used my br as a way of keeping statisics), and it made me think of some things, primarily that 300 bb bankroll is far too little.


When I computed my statistics(which I record every hour), I had 100 observations. My std deviation was 12.5 and my average was 1.8 bb/hr. I took my 100 observations, ranked them and wrote a small c program.


The program would randomly select a number between 0 and 99, index into my array of ranked wins/loses and accumulate a value. I figured this was a good way to simulate thousands of hours. Anyhow. I ran the simulation for 40,000 hours. I never let my bankroll grow beyond 300 big bets. My reasoning was, after 300 big bets I would spend the more(we do get to spend our winnings sometime, dont we?). Well, sure enough I went broke(not really fair to say broke, because I "spent" all money above 300 big bets) somewhere around 20k hands. In fact I went to -150, meaning my bankroll took a 450 big bet hit. This frightened me. My question is this...


Could my 100 hour statistics be abnormal and this simulation be unrealistic?


Could a 300 big bet bankroll be easily defeated if you are a winning player?


Does anyone else see these random beatings of 50+ big bets and still show a profit? Anyone see more than 1 per 100 hours regularly?


On a side note, a ran the simulation a second time using a perfect normal distribution centered on 1.2 bb/hr with a standard deviation of 10 and got the same results(a 300 bb bankroll was exhausted at some point over 100,000 hands this time).


-J