look at out of the money puts, skew
look at the out of the money puts (the skew of the distibution implied by the market). are they priced much higher than previously with regard to the at-the-money straddle? if so, then the market may simply be saying that not much is going to happen, but if something does happen, it may be really bad. if the OTM puts are priced similarly as last year this time, that would surpise me.
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