[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
You probably should have bet the turn, but since you didn't, the coldcall is the only play. A 3-bet is just too obvious, they can't possibly call you down. I'd donk the river for sure though, expecting to get at least one and maybe two confusion calls.

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the response Eric.

I'd like to analyse this in more detail. First off my read on Button (extrapolated from stats) is that he is a little laggy. Postflop agression isn't abnormally high. Just a little loose and a little agressive preflop. I expect this player type to bet a ton of hands when I check to him.

First off he called the flop on a monotone flop. That means he either has a piece or a draw. When the 4th flush card hits, he will either fold his crappy made hands or call when I bet with his weaker flushes. If I check though, he will bet JQK flushes. I think if I bet he is even calling with the king high flush since I was a preflop 3-bettor and am a favorite to have an ace.

Now I admit, all this analysis doesn't include MP. And I agree that there are some hands he'll have that he'll call with if I bet (especially if I lose Button). So I do lose some value from him. But I'd like to argue not a ton.

If the turn checks around, that opens up Villians estimation of my range. They might call the river with hands what would have folded the turn. They might value bet or bluff-stab at the pot with nothing. And if a 5th spade comes they might call to split. These are secondary points though. The primary reason I think a check is good is because Button will bet lots of hands he wouldn't raise with.

Krishan