[sublime]

copied from other thread:

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you think so? I can't think of any deals w/ an AAV of $19m that have been signed recently. there are now a # of $13-$15m guys, but $19M?

well, lets look at the most recent, paul konerko.

if we use the past 3 seasons to project next seasons production using the baseball prospectus stat BRAR (batting runs above replacement) in a 3/2/1 weighting system (i am hijacking this from a poster on SOSH EricVan) then we get this:

manny:

62 x 3
62 x 2
73 x 1

konerko

48 x 3
40 x 2
4 x 1

manny comes out to project to about 63 RAR and konerko comes out to equal 38. of course some will say that, hey thats not fair konerko had a horrible year in 03, while i will say, yeah manny didnt!

manny cashes in at 3.30 runs per million

konerko cashes in at 2.92 per million spent

lets be very optimistic for konerko and eliminate 2003 (which i dont see a good reason to, but will for humor purposes)

konerko then clocks in at 44.8 expected runs which is 3.44 runs per million, still barely more cost efficient than ramirez.

lets now do abreu

his BRAR

54 x 3
73 x 2
60 x 1

projects to produce about 61 runs above replacement level, which equates to 4.17 runs per million.

you can now easily see why the red sox would do this deal, and philly would laugh at it.


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Furcal cashes in at 2.24 expected BRAR per million, However, he plays a premium position and apprently very well.