[babigm]

The Matchup, from an admittedly biased Texas fan:

Offense: It's hard to argue against USC having the advantage here, there really isn't much to complain about. We know this already, Leinhart, Bush, White, Jarrett, etc. Texas is no slouch either though, they've actually got a higher pts/game, and are 3rd behind USC and Texas Tech in Yards/game.

The only top 20 defense either has faced has been Ohio State (and Kansas if you go by yards, but I'm not counting them), which Texas struggled against very early in the season. The passing game has been good to both teams and so has the rushing game. Bush and White get the appropriate kudos, but don't underestimate the Texas backs either. Charles was matched stat for stat with Bush until his ankle injury, and the other 3 (!) backs have stepped up with big games as well. There's two competing unpredictible "factors", The Reggie Bush factor and the Vince Young factor. Both of them can make up for other shortcomings in the offense by themselves, so it's hard to see how nitpicking will make much of a difference.

Defense: Texas has the advantage here, but how big an advantage is really up in the air. It depends on which USC defense shows up, the UCLA one or the Fresno St. one, and how much you buy the "Pac-10 defenses look bad because the offenses are so good!" defense. Personally I don't buy it much. Texas' only let down so far has been the A&M rivalry game, and they shut down a potent Texas Tech offense. USC's offense may be good enough that it doesn't matter how good a defense is they'll score anyway, but we don't know that because they haven't faced anyone of that caliber defense yet.

Special Teams: Bush is of course scary as a return man. Texas has had three different people bust a return for a TD, and they lead the league in blocked kicks. USC gets the edge though because Texas' kicking game has been nerve racking, I think they've missed something like 8 extra points.

Coaching: The easy bet is on USC given past performance. USC probably gets the slight edge here, but I think it's closer to even then most people think. Mack Brown has completely revamped himself as a coach this year, and as someone who called for his head after 2001...and 2002...and 2003, it's really amazing how much better the play calling has been this season. They've really opened up the offense and become much less conservative, and the defense has been dominating all year. The knock has been not being able to win the big games, the close games, but since the OU loss they've done nothing but win big games and close games.

Turnovers: I think this is where USC earns the points they're getting. They're number one in turnover margin, while Texas' backs have had a case of fumblitis all year. Vince tends to throw one bad interception, and he loses the ball sometimes due to how he holds the ball on runs (though it's a lot better this year then last). If Texas keeps the turnovers low, or at least keeps the turnovers they make from hurting them too bad, they have a great shot at winning this game. This I think is the factor that will affect the outcome of the game the most overall, everything else is close enough that it could go either way.