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I'm surprised you didn't use
sagarin to point out Texas is predicted as a better team here with more wins against top 30 teams.
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Sagarin is part of why I think Texas is so good. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
It's possible that Sagarin may break down a bit with teams that are SO dominant, because I don't know exactly how it handles margin of victory.
For one thing, does predictor consider the difference in a 49-point win and a 42-point win to be the same as a 10-point win and a 3-point win? It seems a margin of victory system needs to start having declining returns at some point.
For another thing, when you're winning by so much, whether you win by 56 or 45 is determined somewhat by how much the coach wants to run it up.
All that said, predictor has to be WAY off for this line to be right, and I have enough faith in it that I still think Texas +7 is a good bet. Even if you give USC a small home-field edge.
As an aside, I don't ever recall the top two teams being so head and shoulders above everyone else.