[ethan]

There's a lot of preamble before the actual question, but comments about any part of the hand are appreciated.

This hand took place in a party 30+3 3-table. We're only 15 hands in or so, opponent's played 4. In one, he min-raised the flop, then pushed 4x pot on the turn. In another he called my pfr with position and folded the flop. The others were limp-folds. Nothing too exciting, but he doesn't seem to have too much trouble putting his chips in the middle. (Later hands reinforced this impression.) My stack came in the usual fashion - spotting someone the nuts and sucking out.

To the hand: I almost never minraise, but here I think it might get me a multiway pot with position and about 200 chips in the pot preflop. (I've been playing a lot of PLO, it's helped me with pot-building in hold'em.) That doesn't pan out, and I'm heads-up out of position. There's some chance he has 99, but I think I'm either beaten or against AK/maybe AQs.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (7 handed)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

Hero (t2270)
MP2 (t905)
CO (t1125)
Button (t1180)
SB (t2390)
BB (t795)
UTG (t1335)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls t20, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t40</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">CO raises to t150</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero calls t110.

The flop. Wow, did that ever miss me. I'm now behind everything but 99. I check.

Flop: (t350) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks.

...and he checks. That I didn't expect. He could be trapping...no draws but gutshots out there so it's not a terrible time for that. Or, he could have a pair below kings and be scared of the flop. At this point, I begin to think that he's afraid I'm trapping. To the turn:

Turn: (t350) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets t200</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t550</font>, CO folds.

I guess this was just going with a read. He thought for awhile before putting that bet out there, and it just didn't seem confident. Furthermore, min-raises at Party tend to come from hands that hit that flop. I need him to fold over 50% here for this play to be +EV. What I'm wondering is if that's overly optimistic. Fancy play syndrome or goot?