Betting patterns as tells.
OK, so I'm a low-skill player who wants to be better. I've been trying to improve my understanding of the concept of betting patterns and the hands they represent, but I've run into a problem: I can't tell when a stupid bet is a stupid value bet vs. a stupid bluff.
Example: someone check/calls the flop, check/calls the river, then pushes all-in for 3x the pot on the river. It seems that at the $11s, this could be a pure bluff from a missed hand that's trying to buy the pot OR a bizarre value-bet from a nut set that was scared of the draws all along and finally realizes their hand is good.
Example 2: the exact same betting pattern with a very scary river card (an ace or a third/fourth card to a suit, a pairing of the board or a fourth card to a straight). Sometimes this is a monster that survived bad odds on the draw and made it and now wants a big payoff, but sometimes this is a stone bluff to try and buy the pot.
What factors can help me decide between the two possibilities? Please help me think about this problem with more precision.
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