Thread: The Master Plan
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Old 11-02-2005, 11:58 AM
Ixnert Ixnert is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 224
Default Re: The Master Plan

[ QUOTE ]
30 tournies a day as an average for the next 2 months would probably drive me insane. I'm more than comfortable with 20 / day (including breaks, days that life is more important than poker, etc).

I can play 40 tournies a day for about a week and after that I start really feeling the grind. I think 1200 tournies is a realistic number for 2 months.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you'll need to move higher than the $22s -- even playing 1200 22s, with nothing lower, you're looking at less than $4000 profit.

I'm going to assume right up front that you really need $6000 in 2 months, and that that's non-negotiable. I really think your best plan would be to re-check whether that's really the case, because it's a long shot and you'll quite possibly hate poker after what it takes to get there. I think your second-best plan would be to commit yourself to more than 1200 tournaments, because if you stick to that, you're going to have to take more risk than you're comfortable with to get to your goal.

That said:

I'd start at the $11s if I were you -- to have any significant chance of making this goal, you're going to need to move up quickly and perhaps accept a bit higher ROR than you might otherwise be comfortable with. Starting at the 6s subjects you to higher rake and is taking up time where you'd probably be more profitable at the 11s. You've still got 24 buyins, which gives you a pretty low ROR if your $11 ROI is really 20%. Similarly, you're going to have to move up again at what might be an uncomfortably low BR for the $22s and then the $33s.

I'd play at $11s until you hit 30 $22 buyins, $22s until you have 40 $33 buyins, and if you make it, $55s once you reach 60 buyins for that level.

That's 182 $11s and 200 $22s to get to the $33s. Assuming you can maintain a 12% ROI at the 33s (if you can't, stick with your 15% at the 22s), that's 496 more at the 33s, with you at $3300. If you can shift up to the $55s at 8% (probably optimistic, but again, if you can't do this, stick with the lower level, you're making more money), you'd need 614 more tournaments to hit $6000.

That's a total of 1492 tournaments to $6000, about 25/day, using very optimistic assumptions about your ROI as you move up and taking you to levels you're probably not comfortable with at a speed you're probably even less comfortable with. But unless you do all of those things, you have, frankly, no shot to make your goal barring an incredible heater.

You might improve your chances somewhat by increasing your number of tables; I'd recommend not jumping straight from 4 to 8, but you do want to start in on increasing tables from day one so that you can drop back to a more comfortable number when you move up in buy-in without throwing yourself too far off course of your goal.

But I'll repeat what I said at the beginning -- your wisest course, IMO, is to re-evaluate your goal.
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