Re: BR disagreement/fallacy
I know it's more common in 6-max...but that's what I've been playing these days.
In the HUSH forum there was a thread where SEVERAL players posted their 300BB down-swings (and some were much larger than this).
Most were established winners.
Sthief said almost exactly what I was going to say.
If you have a 2% chance of a 300BB down-swing...then there is also a chance of catching those down-swings back to back.
It's exactly the same as losing to a 1-outer on consecutive hands.
If you play enough it will happen eventually.
Also - after the first 200-300BB's of your bankroll vanish you are CORRECT that you need to consider whether you are a winning player in the first place.
It is a big blow to one's confidence.
No matter how much you KNOW that such downswings CAN and WILL happen it also should occur to you that you are NOT playing winning poker anymore and that you have somehow developed some leaks into your game or just aren't concentrating appropraitely.
Stepping back in limits is an okay way to regain one's confidence, re-evaluate their game, AND protect one's bankroll when you start to get a little bit shorter than you are comfortable with.
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