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Old 01-13-2005, 07:15 PM
Entity Entity is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
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Posts: 3,786
Default Re: I really need your help (personal and kinda long /w stats)

Brad,

I'm gonna take a shot at this one here. First of all, you're definitely running bad. Look at KK and QQ as evidence to that. Here are my numbers over the last 28k hands with those hands (usual sample size statements apply):

AA: 3.43bb/hand
AKs: 1.15bb/hand
AKo: .99bb/hand
AQs: 1.35bb/hand
AQo: (.17bb/hand)
AJs: (.23bb/hand)
AJo: .35bb/hand
KK: 2.58bb/hand
QQ: 1.48bb/hand
JJ: 1.21bb/hand
TT: .42bb/hand
99: 1.19bb/hand

That said, I notice a few things in your game that might sometimes apply. I don't see all of your hands, so I wouldn't take this as gospel or anything, but from your advice (which is generally very very solid) and your hands you've posted, I've observed the following:

1: You get too fancy too often. Sometimes it's fun to wait for the turn to raise; sometimes it's more profitable. But against good opponents who see you call their flop bet and raise the turn, it'll be absolutely obvious what you have. Against bad opponents, you can pop the flop and often will still get a chance to raised/checkraise on the turn. This is really just a bland example; I generally avoid FPS and almost always take the most straightforward line possible. I get trickier in shorthanded play, but at full ring games, it's rarely worth my time.

2: You seem to pride yourself in making good folds. I don't know how often you do this, but I take the opposite approach. Obviously when you know you're beat, you know you're beat; I have to say, though, that making laydowns isn't my forte, and I believe that folding too much (especially in moderate-to-decent sized pots) will kill your winrate. You seem all-to-ready to fold in some instances where I'd definitely call down. I'm very ready to accept this as a potential leak in my game, however.

3: Your game selection sucks. This, I believe, is the most important aspect. You aren't a winner at 5/10, and it's somewhat tough to accept that. But I think you'll have to at some point. Read ElSapo's confession. 5/10 is a notably frustrating game, and I don't see why people play it willingly when there are more profitable ventures to be found elsewhere. Learn shorthanded play. Step back to the 1/2 6max games for a while (softsoftsoftsoftsoftsoft), work on your shorthanded game, and then when you feel comfortable, bump it up to 5/10 6max.

If you don't want to play shorthanded, go back to 3/6. The games at 3/6 are still very beatable for 2bb/100, just playing ABC (or semi-ABC). So if you 4-table 3/6, you're getting in ~200h/hr, so you're looking at $24/hr for playing 3-6. That's a livable wage, even if it's a bit of a grind. Add rakeback to it (we've had this discussion), and you'll be earning well over $30/hr, which is definitely a livable income. Adding more tables and playing more hands at that level, earning 50k+/yr at 3/6 is very doable. You'll also have a somewhat-expendable roll to move up to 5/10 6max comfortably and confidently within a short amount of time.

4: Unless the bad beat jackpot is greater than $225k (at 3/6), stop playing it. The EV breakeven point for the BBJ is $222,151.66 at 3/6, and $247,629.10 at 5/10. You should be spending your time in greener pastures, with rakeback, until the BBJ hits a point (like now) where it's clearly profitable to play the tables.

5: Learn a new game. Even a tightass like yourself can make money at PLO8. A lot of money, actually. Look into it: I've heard the quote before that finding a good PLO8 game is the closest thing you can find to being able to print money. From what I've seen, and I suck at the game, I agree.

6: Finally, start working on your game even more. The micros are a fun place to post, and even though I post a lot here, I do most of my reading elsewhere. Read the plays of other players, and figure out why you would or wouldn't do that; then question them. Argue with them, bicker with them, until you realize why they are right, or they realize why they are wrong. As fun as posting in the micros is, it's more to give back to the community than to work on your own game; the questions just aren't that challenging here. But in mid-high and in the shorthanded forum, I constantly find myself being challenged to come up with better lines, to improve my play and the play of others. I'd suggest you try the same.

I hope this advice will be well-received. I'm not a professional poker player because frankly, while I love the game, I don't have the patience to put up with the lifestyle a pro would. It's possible that you don't as well, but I don't want to see you give up the game. I think you're too good, and your presence will be missed too much around the forums to simply hang 'em up.

Rob
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