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Old 09-24-2002, 10:00 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 598
Default Re: Omaha sets vs. over-sets; simulation

Mack - Very nicely done!

[Against one opponent, hero beat a straight 95,215 times; beat a straight AND a set of A's 93,253 times, thereby losing to a Set of A's 1962 times.

When that one opponent was holding AAQJ, the win would be by virtue of the straight, rather than the higher set. When the board is AK962 and Hero’s hand is KKJJ, that one opponent could have AAXX, where XX is anything, including another ace, 2340 possible ways. Of these, 24 could be AAQJ. Thus about 1% (24/2340) of the losses you attribute to AA are actually losses to the straight when your opponent holds AAQJ. I like the way you kept this factor as small as possible by using a pair of jacks in Hero’s hand.

That doesn’t change (or explain) the discrepancy between 1962 and 1902, which seems to be simply a matter of experimental uncertainty (the luck factor).

Lots of food for thought here.

Thanks.

Buzz
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