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We only make our hand ~30-33% of the time on the river at this point
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How do you calculate this? Is this number of outs vs. what we have left in the deck?
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46 cards left, so our odds are 15
46-15) = 15:31, which is rougly 1:2 or 33%.
A quicker method for a rough calculation is to take the number of outs and multiply by 4 on the flop or 2 on the turn. So 15x2 = 30%. This undershoots it a bit, so it's reasonable to use for "value" calculations.