Re: i\'m old!!! please help!!!
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alright, i knew all this stuff in university. but now i'm old.. and probably a troll. nominate me for best troll if you want.
anyhow,
if i have 2 BB/hour win rate (could be per 100 hands) and 12 BB/hour standard deviation, what are the odds after 10 hours (X hours) that i am profitable??
it must be somewhat closed form, and i can work the NORMSINV and RAND() functions in microsoft pretty well. so i can do it the old labour intensive way.
but there must be a formula using the normal distribution.
thanks in advance. very much appreciated. and obviously i want to experiment with win rate, standard deviation and hours (could be per 100 hands but i won't ask about conversion)
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Assuming win rate = 2 bb/hr and SD = 12 bb for 1 hour:
=1 - NORMDIST(0,2*10,12*sqrt(10),true) =~ 70.1%
or
=1 - NORMSDIST(-2*10/(12*sqrt(10))) =~ 70.1%
or
=NORMSDIST(2*10/(12*sqrt(10))) =~ 70.1%
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