[SumZero]

I like the top 50%, top 30% ranges. Using those:

So our CEV if big stack has top 30%, shorty has top 50% and we have AQo is $2694, while if we fold we have 1810 since we lost the BB. We are winning outright 42% of the time. Further, more than half the time we lose, so does the short stack. The short stack only wins 28.2% of the time. The big stack wins 29.8% of the time. More than half the 28.2% the short stack wins we beat the big stack.

So that is: 42% of the time we end up with 4900, big stack has 2410, and other has 2690. This is worth $380.59

And: 29.8% of the time the big stack wins outright. We take 3rd. That is worth $200.

And: 18.4% of the time the short stack wins main pot but we win side. big stack has 2410, other has 2690, short has 1440, we have 3460. That is worth $307.49.

And: 9.8% of the time short stack wins main and big stack wins side pot. That is worth $0.

So our total $EV of call is .42*380.59+.298*200+.184*307.49 which is $276.03.

Contrast if we fold:

55.5% of the time: the big stack wins and has 5500, 1810, 2690. That is worth $283.08.

44.5% of the time: the short stack wins and then its 4240, 1810, 1360, 2690. That is worth $215.08.

So the total $EV of fold is .555*238.08+.445*215.08 which is $227.85.

So this is clearly a call, and it isn't close.

So I'm with Raptor and Irieguy and the (ICM bubble enlightened?) minority on both AQo bubble hands.