[DcifrThs]

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This is just plain wrong! The math dictates that a fraction of winning players will experience such downswings, not that it is to be expected!

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Show me the math. I'm serious.

I've personally only had 2 250's and no 300's but I've probably only played 400-500k hands.

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Ive had exactly 1 250bb downswing. it happened when party opened the 30/60 game.

the fact is though if you play enough hands it will happen. period. the fact that it is to be "expected" i definately disagree with.

if you do have a 300bb downswing its certainly cause for concern because the probability of it being pure chance is still very small. that is what rig is saying.

what i believe happens a lot of the time is exactly what is expected and written about by feeney, sklansky, malmuth et al. players play winning poker for a time and run good. they overestimate their ability and start loosening up in a few spots. this brings their win rate down and standard devation up once you start abusing this "edge." this in and of itselt increases the likelihood of a large downswing. what very likely happens is that its a combination of the factors above.

the fact that it seems to happen so often to people on this forum is that we all strive to increase our edge and push small edges.its a delicate balance though.

the bottom line is that while 300bb downswings are rare. they DEFINATELY do occur.some likely caused by more bad play than others.

-Barron