[ QUOTE ]
Board: Jh 4d 2s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.4794 % 40.25% 01.23% { KQo }
Hand 2: 58.5206 % 57.29% 01.23% { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, Q2s, J9s+, J6s, T9s, T4s, 98s, 75s, A2o+, K7o+, K3o, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 97o, 76o }

I figured he'd 3bet with any ace, any pocket, any broadway, and a few random crappy hands. I'm 40:60 after the flop; supposing that he bets the flop and turn with any two if I just check/call, and bets the river if he has a piece or an ace/bets it only half the time if he's behind to me:

40% of the time I put in 2.5BB to win ~6BB
60% of the time I put in 2.5BB and lose 2.5BB

Now I'm thinking that against the range I'm thinking he has, I think that not calling down may just be really, really bad. Of course the range here assumes that maybe I hit on the turn or river . . . if a blank falls on the turn, though, I'm 2:1 against. At which point I have to put in two bets to win 5.

Ugh. Capping preflop, then check/call or bet/call turn, check/fold river looks like it might be +EV.

By the way, I'm only 52.5 : 47.5 against the range I gave (he pops back with any ace, any broadway, any pair, and some random crap). Ugh. Maybe I should just check/fold KQo from now on.

[/ QUOTE ]
Looking at that a calldown seems good unless an ace comes on the turn. If it comes on the river I think the pot is too big.