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Old 11-30-2005, 09:13 AM
Peter Harris Peter Harris is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Edinburgh, UK
Posts: 113
Default Re: for those of you that want to bet the river......

I would put button on 99, KQ, AK, and BB on K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] x or Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for the monkey coldcall. I think it's unlikely a Taggy player wouldn't cap the flop with KQ holding a club, or exactly Ax K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

If checkraised, I would lay down the river. I sincerely doubt we will.

Interested in hearing results.

EDIT: for more info, i stoved a Taggy 3bet on the button, assuming they don't read you for worth isolating with less than below [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

AA-77, AKs-ATs, AK-AT, KQs-KTs, KQ-KJ, QJs
vs
A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You hand has 75.8% equity on the turn, 74.3% on the turn and
73.7% on the river.

If we factor in the BB is along for his donkey ride holding Kc x (let x= 7s) or Qc x, the stove comes out thus:

Flop: You 72.3 - TAG 22.3 - BB 5.7
Turn: You 72.15 - TAG 24.7 - BB 3.15
River: You 73.8 - TAG 26.2 - BB 0

*even* if we let BB have a quite goot hand, say K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] we get this:

Flop: You 69.2 - TAG 18.4 - BB 12.4
Turn: You 70.3 - TAG 20.9 - BB 8.8
River: You 75.6 - TAG 24.4 - BB 0

I *really* think the river bet is good.
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