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Old 10-26-2005, 12:57 AM
TStoneMBD TStoneMBD is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Rome, NY
Posts: 268
Default Re: An AA hand at party skins 20/40

im really surprised to hear you say that you think youll rarely get 3bet by the turn donker. hes representing a very strong hand and id imagine he 3bets quite a bit. youre saying you would probably call the turn 3 bet because you think you will be drawing to a live twopair often enough which implies that you think villain will 3bet the turn with twopair a good percentage of the time, which leads me to believe that some of your logic is contradicting because you say you dont think you will be 3bet that often.

if you fold to a turn 3bet when you are drawing to a live twopair, thats alot of pot equity that you passed up on. if you call the turn and fold the river youll be getting 17:1 that your hand is best. folding might be correct but you certainly still have pot equity with a pot that large that you dont want to pass up on.

i think after the player donks into you on the turn youre trailing more often than youre ahead if not by a good portion of the time. if youre somehow ahead at this point its hard to believe that the donk bettor doesnt have a club to accompany his pair, so raising to eliminate a club from UTG+1 doesnt have much equity.
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