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Old 05-27-2005, 04:30 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
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Default Re: Nut flush pairs board on river

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What happens if there is not only a raise, but a reraise, and maybe even a cap before it gets back to you? Do you still call?

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No.

Mortal Wombat - Assuming you can see four cards in the flush suit after the turn, two times out of nine when the board flushes on the river, it will also pair.

But although a common occurrence, it's not easy to know for sure what you're up against when you end up with the nut flush here.

If you start with nine opponents, and if none of them fold there’s about an eighty per cent chance of encountering a full house or quads when the board pairs on the river. But here half of your opponents folded before the flop. If you start against only four opponents, and if none of them fold, then there’s only about a fifty per cent chance at least one of them has a full house when the board pairs on the river.

Hard to say exactly how hand selectivity plays a role here. Are the four opponents who saw the flop more or less likely than random to have one of the two-card combinations that would beat you? I’d guess slightly less likely than random. With three random carded opponents, the probability of encountering at least one opponent with a full house is about 40%.

Whatever. Make if forty per cent or fifty per cent, or some where in between.

Most Omaha-8 players with much experience at all realize that there is a very good chance of somebody making a full house or better when the board pairs. And most Omaha-8 players with much experience also realize that sometimes nobody has a full house, even though the board is paired.

At any rate, when someone bets after the river card pairs and flushes the board, it’s not necessarily with a full house.

But raising is a different matter. A raise on the fourth betting round when the board is paired and low is not possible usually means the nuts or at least an overboat. There are thrill seekers who raise with less here - but that’s wild play and not often encountered. There are also ignoramuses who raise thinking a set is a good hand when the board is paired and flushed - but by and large, anyone raising on the fourth betting round when the board is paired and flushed usually has at least a full house. And that beats an ace-high flush.

Bottom line. I would tend to call one big bet with the nut flush when no low is possible, even though the board is paired. However, I would not call a double bet.

Just my opinion.

Buzz
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