The Dow is a poor average for doing this kind of analysis since it is a price weighted average as opposed to a market cap weighted average. For argument's sake let's say that some other appropriate index does yield similar results. As Russ pointed out dividends come into play it depends on what you do with dividends. If you reinvest them then given todays tax structure they should be reinvested after taxes are paid on them. I don't know how dividends have been treated tax wise throughout the period you mention. If you don't reinvest dividends then I think that they are far less significant. Another point would be how practical is it to reinvest dividends given transaction costs? Today transaction costs are not nearly as high as they were 15 years ago. I'll admit I really don't know the effect of this. The other thing I would think becomes very relevant is the tax treatment of stocks vs. bonds since stock price appreciation is treated differently tax wise than bond coupon payments.