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Old 12-27-2005, 08:43 AM
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Default Re: $55 How about this -$EV Push?

Very bad push IMO.

To know whether something is +$EV or -$EV you have to compare your $EV when you fold with your $EV when you push.

If you fold now you are second in chips, second to the loose big stack, which is a nice position to be in. Especially because you have 2 tight, shorter stacks to your left, which means you can torture them (if the big stack folds when they are in the blinds).

If you push you are risking your entire stack by going all-in when the only player who can bust you is in the BB, who happens to be quite loose. If you are not called you steal the blinds, which means you're still in 2nd chip position. You steal the big blind from the biggest stack, which doesn't really help you, because he will still be huge. If you're called by the BB you're screwed.

Pushing to steal blinds has value for us for 2 reasons: you add the blinds to your stack and you take the blinds from someone else's stack. In this case the extra $450 doesn't help you a lot because you will still be in second chip position, and you have almost 7BB to begin with. And you steal the big blind from the big stack, which doesn't help you at all because he will still easily be the big stack.
In this situation you should know a couple of things:
- Do not mess with the big stack, especially if he's loose.
- Steal the blinds of the shorter stacks. First of all they're tight. Secondly, this makes them shorter and you bigger. It gets you in an even stronger position.

I don't know if this made sense, but I'm just trying to explain my thoughts. It's all ICM. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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