[MrWookie47]

Given your read of UTG (any two will do), I fully expect him to call. The problem with your equity calculation is that you omit the possibilities of 9x, a crappy pocket underpair, A high, K high, J high, or whatever else this clown may have and may very well call your river bet with.

Edit: Well, I guess he can't have K high, per se, but take it as the spirit of what I was saying.