[UOPokerPlayer]

The more I think about this, the more I am hating myself for this fold. Does anyone know how to do the EV calculations that would find out how much villian has to have the straight here?

I'll try -
First pot odds
pot is 27+10+45+148 = 230
103 to call
Pot with call = 333
103 to win 230 2.23:1 odds which means I need 45% equity.

So when I'm ahead we'll say he has five outs (OESD=8 outs,AA+2 outs, KJ=2 outs). This is debatable, I'm mostly just trying to work on my math.

So...

If he has the straight - I have 10 outs = ~20% equity
If he doesn't - he has 5 outs = ~90% equity

% of time I'm ahead(X)(90%)(333) - 103 =
% of time I'm behind(Y)(20%)(333) - 103 =
When the sum of the two = 0 that's the smallest percentage that he needs to be ahead.

{(X)(.9)(330)-103} + {Y(.2)(330)-103} = 0

194X + -37Y = 0
194X = 37Y
5.24X = Y

~84%

It also looks like he could have JJ or KK, meaning I don't on average have 10 outs.

Ok, so how am I actually suppose to make these calculations?