Thread: 1/2 PokerStars
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Old 10-27-2005, 08:41 AM
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Default Re: 1/2 PokerStars

This could be a case of a result (SB's fold on the river) influencing the analyses. I think a better post for the river might be:

River: (14 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets, Hero ?

To continue that thought there is a case for a fold here given that we have to fear a check raise from SB. You are thinking about this hand after it is finished so maybe you forgot you had this particular fear when you acted??

Heads-up against "Moron" this a no-brainer crying call. With SB still to act I think it is a bit more complicated because of the threat of a check raise from a "thinking player". <<BTW - did you have any kind of a read on SB?>> If you are sure that SB will fold or just call then calling is the correct move here. If you are worried about a raise behind you it does change the situation especially since "Moron" could raise again and you will be faced with having to call 2 (or even 3) more. If you call and SB does raise your chance of winning goes to about zero and you should fold.

Exploring the differences between fold and call/fold we have to consider the probability that SB will raise. Considering the hand possiblities (including AT) that MP1 could have, and using PokerStove, I figure you have about 15% pot equity heads-up and nearly zero equity three-way (if SB is calling with a legitimate hand).

If you fold and SB folds you have a theoretical loss of about -2.10BB. Calling with the same situation will net +1.25BB in the long run for a net gain of +3.35BB by calling. If you fold and the SB raises you have lost nothing and if you call and SB raises you will have made a -1.00BB mistake (more if you continue calling [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]) for a net loss of -1.00BB by calling. So in this case if you judge there is a better than 3.35:1 chance that SB will raise then the correct action is to fold. Forget about what he actually did and don't let that influence future decision making (after all there is a reason for the 1 in 3.35:1).

But then again I am a hopeless newbie and probably totally off base. I even thought the raise preflop was fine and would have done the same.

Edited to use BBs instead of $ because this is $1/$2 instead of $.50/$1 where I play and $1 = 1BB. I did say I was a hopeless newbie [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. I wish I was good enough to play $1/$2 [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img].
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