[Entity]

Off the top of my head I really like it. On the surface it seems like you're risking 3BB to win 1/2 of SB's share (3.17BB) of the pot, but I don't think it's quite that. Since this sort of player is often the sort to bet "his straight" on this river, even when we're risking 3BB's when he does have a T (we have to call his 3-bet, I'm assuming, given our lack of a detailed read and the general read provided by his stats), that this will be turning a small profit here.

My guess, offhand, is that he's got a T about 20% of the time. So 20% of the time, we lose 3BB. 80% of the time, we win an additional 1.58BB. We'd earn about 2/3 of a BB on this play overall.

There are some other factors, but guessing that SB would lead with a T and will fold when he doesn't have one here, it looks like we're going to turn a profit -- even if we're calling a 3-bet -- if MP has the straight 34% of the time or less.

Anyway, I like it. Folding a chop in a fairly big pot is usually very worthwhile.

Rob