[dogmeat]

Alright, the original thread on this subject was this:

It's a $50/$100 game online.

MP1 raises and is 23/11
MP2 reraises and is 22/9

Player with JJ folds. Is this the right move?

I did not consider the OP's options to include cold calling. I considered only a cap or a fold.

I know nothing about the rest of the table, but guessed that there would not be any callers if the JJ hand capped.

If JJ caps, he assumes that the original raiser will call, and the reraiser would have raised with hands that will include AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, as well as AK. Also assume that these are the hands that the first raiser will hold.

Given this information, the times that these hands hit (very roughly - disregarding whether any of these are mutually exclusive) in 1000 is:

AA 5x, KK 5x, QQ 5x, JJ 2.5x, TT 5x, AK 9x.

JJ wins 45% of the time when both opponents hold TT, and AK (14 times). JJ wins 24% of the time when both hold a small pair or JJ (2.5 times). JJ wins 18% of the time when either opponent holds AA,KK, or QQ (15 times). If the pot becomes $1850 by the end, with JJ putting in $600 each hand, and this rough math assumes 31.5 hands, then it costs $18,900 to play, and returns $17,800. Clearly folding is a better option.

If, however, I can add 99 to a possible hand of the reraiser, then I can expect to win $1100.

So, I can either lose $1100 or win $1100. I don't see a difference between either capping or folding.

Now if I think the raisers will raise with even weaker hands, then I certainly want to cap. I probably get enough extra income to also make this a cap instead of a fold if I am pretty sure I will pick up another caller.

I'm done.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]