[locutus2002]

I see your point and I think it has some merit.

Here's some crude math:

27 ways villain flops 2 pr
9 ways for sets
24 ways for A(8,9,Q) (by the turn)
16 ways for a str8
~75 hands you are way behind.

8(TJ), 9(TJ),Q(TJ) QK = 7X12 ways for pair with draw
~86 hands you ahe ahead.
and about ~50 flush draws.

~130 drawing hands with the flush draw

(Note I'm ignoring hands like K9 that might have called the flop and would be classified as a drawing hand.)

If the problem is that villain only calls when he is ahead, then hero should not bet the river either unless he improves again for the same reason; villain will fold the worst hand.

How much is it costing hero to check the turn. Hero has 2/3 pot equity since there are twice as many drawing hands as hands that are ahead of him: equals T400 at the turn. If villain has ~9 outs to a drawing hand then villain gives up ~20% of his equity to give villain an extra card: equals T80 (assuming neither player will commit another chip unless they are ahead).

So Hero gives up ~EV=T80 to avoid committing another chip when he is behind.

Of course checking behind opens yourself up to a steal, so its a very player dependent check.

I think you are right. Hero can check behind here and give up some EV to avoid going broke against some players.