Re: is this just dumb?
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Exactly how many hands would UTG cap preflop do we beat here?
Fold the flop.
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We don't have to be currently ahead of UTG to be able to call the flop. Its 12:1 to call, which would imply that you need about 3 outs. Considering your gutshot, trip, and backdoor flush draw, you would have a maximum of 7.5 outs. Obviously we need to discount that significantly, considering his range, but I think we at least have enough to peel the flop.
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