Re: Who wins when mistakes are made?
I think the point you're missing is that the aggressor DID benefit from his aggression. He eliminated the person with the best hand, increased his outs, & put himself heads-up with a fairly predictable calling station. (Assuming as you said that UTG+1 is "a player that MP2 has observed to call down with any piece of the pot.")
Those are all good things. Not only that, he HAS to think that he has 9 outs to the nuts, so building the pot isn't bad. Plus, there's a good chance SB was bluffing & he picks up the pot right there.
I don't see how this is somehow a breakdown in the FTOP, but I do agree that you want people to make mistakes that help you. A more interesting thread on this topic might be centered on influencing others perceptions of you or something similar, but you're right - mistakes that other players make can easily hurt you if you don't know that they are making mistakes & can't take advantage of them.
IMHO
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